VEGAS ODDS: MIAMI-OHIO (-30 1/2) vs. AKRON ~   TOTAL: (45)

RECORDS: MIAMI-OHIO (6-4) (5-1 in MAC Play)  (6-4 ATS)  /  AKRON (0-10) (0-6 in MAC Play) (0-10 ATS)


Well it’s rare you will ever see any team go undefeated, or lose all its games, but it’s super rare to see any team cover the spread every game or not cover every game. At some point, now 10 weeks in, you are either a solid team to “BET ON” or a terrible one you should be “BETTING AGAINST”. Akron has not only not won a game all season, but they have not covered even one of them. This is almost impossible to do as at some point you usually play a good game or you catch a team on an “Off game” so you may not win, but you do cover a point spread.

In decades covering College Football, I have to place Akron’s Offense now as one of worst 5 ever. They average 10 points a game. This is in one of the weakest Conference’s in the nation and they barely hit double digits per game. It won’t get easy tonight either as they play a pretty good Miami-Ohio, who has now won 4 straight, outscoring it’s 4 opponents (118-64). 

Akron’s Defense allows 36 points per game, but surprisingly it’s a Defense in the top off of all Defenses (#61). This teams problem is the Offense has been inside the Red Zone only 22x all year (scoring only 10 TD’s) and the Defense has been inside the Red Zone twice as much (44x), allowing 29 TD’s (73%). The Akron Zips 4 QB’s have thrown 12 Interceptions and the OL just is as pitiful as there is allowing the Zips QB’s to be sacked 43x. The Zips have scored 14 points or less 7 of it’s 10 games. Hard to win (or cover) when you can’t put many points on the score board. 

Miami-Ohio has a firm grip on the Mac-East Title and should almost 100% win this game straight up (30+ favorites). This team as you can see has four losses, but three of those four came to Elite CFB opponents: Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. They have not been very good on Offense (#124 overall), yet they have found ways to win games. If there was a night to every get the Offense rolling, it would be this game tonight, as the Zips Defense has only 6 sacks and only 3 interceptions. 

It’s always been a wonder to me why any sane person would bet any team in the bottom 15 in the nation as you are betting a bad team that even if it plays it’s best game, could still lose because it clearly lacks depth and when you have a team like Akron, that after 10 games now has a season long rush attempt of 29 yards with it’s second longest being 17, and add it the team has 2 rushing TD’s (TWO = OUCH), you have a team that really needs more of a miracle at this point, than skill, to put points on scoreboard. Getting 30 points you could say if they can even score FG’s that should be enough tonight to cover, but the FG Kicker is (5-10) and his long is 42 yards. The Zips Offense is allergic to the Red Zone and the Defense, although numbers wise isn’t that bad, simply doesn’t help the Offense much getting them the ball in good field position enough. When you are the worst rushing team like the Zips (52 rypg) it puts a ton of pressure on the Offensive Line as the opposing Defense don’t even sweat the run game and just send extra guys to rush the QB hard, and it’s worked as the poor QB’s are getting sacked way too much.

It’s always important to look deeper into the stats and the one stat that is somewhat misleading is the one where Miami-Ohio Defense is allowing an average of 29 points per game this season. Those mostly came from playing the best Offense (Ohio State) and two other top 25 type teams in Iowa and Cinci. If you exclude those 3 losses, Miami-Ohio is only allowing (18.8) points per game. It’s clear Miami-Ohio is rolling the past month and the Zips simply are being rolled over. 

Tuesday night wasn’t a good night for the Sportsbooks as the two Favorites last night both won big (by 28 and 42 points). Part of the reason is the MAC simply doesn’t have a lot of depth and at this point some teams are just running out of players and forced to play backups, who aren’t good at all. The Zips really didn’t have much talent to begin with, now go on the Road as they play out their final two games. The key note to end with is Akron closes it’s season at Home next week. That’s the game I’d expect the team to be fired up as they send off their Seniors on “Senior Night”. I simply could never grasp how you lay 30+ (THIRTY NOW) points with the 8th worst Offense (Miami-Ohio) in the nation. These games are great for the books to get action on a normally dark/dead “Wed night”, but you have very little care for your own money if you are betting on either side here tonight. If you do, my prayers are with you.


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