BAYLOR @ OKLAHOMA PREVIEW – BIG 12 TITLE GAME (12/7)!

BAYLOR LOOKING TO AVENGE IT’S ONLY LOSS OF YEAR TO OKLAHOMA AND CLAIM THE BIG 12 TITLE AT SAME TIME!

LAS VEGAS BETTING ODDS:  OKLAHOMA (-8 1/2 or -9) vs. BAYLOR   ~    TOTAL: (65)

OKLAHOMA #1 OFFENSE (260 RUSH/304 PASS) vs. BAYLOR #39 DEFENSE (allows 144 RUSH/209 PASS)

BAYLOR #33 OFFENSE (186 RUSH/259 PASS) vs. OKLAHOMA #26 DEFENSE (allows 140 RUSH/196 PASS)

FIRST MEETING THIS SEASON: OKLAHOMA won the game 34-31.

Well folks the Big 12 Title is on the line at high Noon on Saturday afternoon and a bigger bonus looks to be given to the winner as they should also secure a CFB PLAYOFF invite as well. The first meeting was a tale of two halves, as Baylor came out on fire and just dominated Oklahoma. But the second half the tide fully turned as Oklahoma held Baylor scoreless and squeaked out a close late 3 point win. Baylor had 31 points and 240 total yards and then just 99 total yards and zero points in the second half. In the second half it looked as if the Baylor Offensive Line tired out as they got dominated by Oklahoma’s pass rush as Bears QB C. Brewer got sacked 2x and was hurried on many other plays as well. Shockingly Oklahoma made that incredible comeback without it’s leading WR Cee Dee Lamb (50 catches, 1,035 yards and 14 TD’s with a 20 yard per catch average). The biggest difference in the game was Oklahoma ran 95 offensive plays to just 52 Offensive plays for Baylor. Oklahoma had 525 total yards to Baylors 307 total yards. Oklahoma really wore down Baylor’s D in the second half too with 4 drives of 11 plays or more…and they ran it over and over, 52x in all, just wiping out the momentum Baylor had in the first half. Baylor dominated with 41 minutes time of possession to the Sooners 19. They turned ball over on first possession of the second half and then imploded the rest of the way. 

Baylor has played in 6 games this year decided by only 1 possession and it won 5 of the 6. The only loss was to Oklahoma. They have scored 29 points or more in 8 games this season. The Bears Defense held 8 opponents under 21 points this season. Baylor is the only Defense all year to hold Oklahoma from getting a Rushing TD. Baylor won all 5 games away from Home this year, winning 29-23, 45-27, 31-12, 21-13, and 61-6. Since the crushing loss to the Sooners, Baylor has outscored it’s last 2 opponents 85-16, completely avoiding what could have been a gigantic letdown. 

Since Oklahoma suffered their lone loss of the season to Kansas State, they scored 34 points or more in every game but 1. On the Road this year the Sooners have scored at least 34 points every game this season scoring 3x in the high 4o’s as well. They have played some close games as well, with half of their Big 12 games this season decided by a TD or less (3, 4, 7 and 7). The Sooners are averaging 77 plays run the past 4 games and it’s been a J. Hurts/K. Brooks rush attack (38 rushes between them average). Brooks has taken his game to elite level the past 2 weeks with 149 rushing yards and 160 rushing yards. Once the opposing Defense’s load the box. Hurts has been brilliant with the Option and faking the handoff and holding the LB’s and then running it outside to huge success. Oklahoma’s Defense has allowed only 40 points in the past 10 quarters since that terrible first half at Baylor 3 games ago. The last two weeks they held TCU to 204 total yards and then just 1 TD to a high scoring Oklahoma State club. 

In the first meeting Oklahoma’s DL Ronnie Perkins wreaked total havoc on the Bears and QB Brewer, with 3 sacks and 4 tackles for loss. The Sooners Defense this year has allowed a full 10 points per game less than last season and the reason is the Back 7 to me has improved at levels I didn’t see even possible. The Sooners still though are (-8) in turnovers, and that’s mostly why they played so many close games in Big 12 play this season. 

Oklahoma is the defending back to back Big 12 Champions, beating Texas 39-27 last season here in this Big 12 Title game and two years ago beating TCU 41-17. 

KEY TRENDS TO WATCH:

BAYLOR:  Has only beaten Oklahoma 3x in the past 24 meetings.

BAYLOR: Last 7 games as a “UNDERDOG” they are (7-0) ATS with 5 Outright wins.

BAYLOR HEAD COACH MATT RUHLE: (33-14) ATS as an “UNDERDOG” with 16 outright Wins. 

OKLAHOMA: (11-3-1) ATS when installed as only a single digit favorite.

LAST SEASON FINAL SCORE:  Oklahoma beat Baylor last season 66-33 gaining 607 total yards to Baylor’s 493 total yards.

FINAL KICK:

It’s always difficult to beat the same team twice so that bodes well for Baylor here, who is also looking to avenge an ass whooping last year to the Sooners. Baylors big problem is “How do you stop Sooners QB jalen Hurts” (72% pass completions, 3, 347 yards passing, 31 TD passes, only 6 int’s, 1,217 rushing yards and 18 TD’s and he has a chip on his shoulders for Alabama removing him from his starting QB spot. Baylor though has some nice weapons too and we saw them really dominate Oklahoma for the first half of that first meeting. If Baylor has any chance to win they must play much better on the Offensive line. The team should come in well rested as they cruised to easy wins the past 2 weeks, meaning the tank should be full. They need a full tank as Oklahoma can tire out really any team in the country. Stopping a Number 1 Offense like Oklahoma is nearly impossible. So the Bears may need to just try to score point for point and do their best to turn the Sooners over a few times again. This game is being played in December, where weather is usually a problem and even more so field conditions a little slowed due to worn out fields. But not Saturday for this nice rematch as this game will be played at ATT Stadium, aka Jerry’s World. The track will be perfect and fast for both sides and should open up the playbooks for both Offensive Play callers as this game could feature some “trick” plays that shock the opposing side. This could be one of the more entertaining games of Title Games this Saturday, so don’t miss it. Rarely do we see both sides playing for one “GOLDEN TICKET”. The winner will be happy for a New York minute, but they then will be forced to root for a Georgia loss. What a wild day for these kids but wow that’s a ride we all wish we could take. 

Enjoy the game and may all your wagers this weekend be WINNING ones!

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