VEGAS LINE:  FLORIDA (-2) vs. BAYLOR  ~  TOTAL: (131 1/2)

#1 BAYLOR:  (16-1) – (4-0) AWAY     ~    FLORIDA: (12-6) – (7-1) HOME


As we head into February now the most stunning thing in a boat load of shocking events of this College Hoops season is Baylor being ranked #1 at this point of the season. Another shocker is Florida not being ranked at all. This after we heard from tons and tons of CBB pundits saying Florida was a Final 4 team. You have to give great credit to Baylor HC S. Drew for having his team come into this game with just one loss. Baylor is no flash in the pan, as they’ve already secured wins over Arizona, Kansas, Villanova and Texas Tech. These 4 teams are very elite teams and so you have to believe this is a team that can continue to win, even without a loaded team of superstars. 

First we look at Baylor and the 4 guard system they use. They like to get you in transition as they are height challenged in a half court setting. What is most evident though is they win and win and win being a very poor shooting team. They are near very bottom in shooting in their own Conference. Shooting 42% overall is not a number you’d ever expect to see from any Top 30 team, let alone the number 1 team in the nation.

Florida added Va. Tech stud Kerry Blackshear and that seemed to be the greatest addition for any team by a transfer and one that would catapult the Gators to the Final 4. It simply hasn’t shown up on the court as they have been marred by inconsistent play. They are though a different team at home as they are a solid (7-1), losing only to a loaded Florida State team in their first week of action this season. Last Saturday they finally played how we expected them to play as they beat a very strong Auburn team and they did it in blowout fashion (winning 69-47).  They returned to their up and down season with a heartbreaking 84-82 loss at LSU. There is nothing bad about losing on the Road against a very strong LSU team, but usually a team turning the corner gets a big road win off that big home win. Now it’s up to Florida to prove the Auburn game was no fluke last Saturday.


The Gators are just (2-16) all time vs. Teams ranked #1. 


Earlier in the season the line then for this game would’ve been Florida (-6) or so. Now we get a different match up of early season expectations. Last Saturday we told you there were a ton of ranked teams facing un-ranked teams. We told you at least a few would not only not cover the spread, but they’d get picked off straight up fashion. And a handful did. This is the craziest and most topsy turvy season I’ve seen in 20 years. Is Baylor the best team in the nation? Absolutely not. They are occupying this #1 for the time being. Are they a great team? It’s hard to say “great” but they are really, really good. A good indicator of how the Vegas Books and lines makers feel for this game and how they value the #1 ranking of Baylor:  “Florida is the favorite”.  This game was a Pick’em early…went to Florida (-1) and then to (-1 1/2) and its not 3pm/EST yet (5 hours before tip off) and the money is pouring in on Florida to the line now at Florida the (-2) point favorite. One of the key things long time winning Pro bettors have known is when the #1 team or any high ranked team in facing an unranked team it’s usually the ranked team falling in that particular game. The average Joe bettor will see #1 Baylor as the Underdog and salivate to get a bet on them in ASAP. But the reality is here tonight is Florida will be more fired up for this game than any other game this year so far. They will bring their A+ game in front of a completely insane fan base of “THE SWAMP” going wild from hours before the game to every possession of this game. Baylor is a good team but the home court advantage will be much same as what a (coming in) Auburn found last week. Baylor isn’t a great shooting team and so they will need their Defense to play it’s A+ game to win outright. Last week we told you about how the Lakers would be facing a Celtics team at home that really needed to put forth a top effort and be as focused as they have been all season. The Celtics went out and won by 30+ points. Will Florida win by 30+ or even the 20+ they beat Auburn?  No. But Florida will win this game by 7-8 point range and come away with that very needed resume adder and prove again they are much better than the (12-6) record that have put forth to this point. Take Florida tonight and don’t be shocked the Number 1 team lost to an unranked team. It happens. Often. And this is a CBB season full of very good teams, but no really top of line teams we’ve had for the past 20 seasons. 

Enjoy this game tonight on ESPN at 8PM/PST as it’s really the best game on the CBB card today. Baylor will put up a good fight, but in the end it’s the Gators who get the much needed WIN. Have a great weekend and may all your wagers be WINNING ones.


SPECIAL NOTE: Check out one of our Hottest Cappers, THE NETWORK, as they are destroying the Books the past few weeks and are dialed in at a very strong level right now.



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