ESB “GAME OF DAY”: DUKE @ NORTH CAROLINA PREVIEW (2-8-20)

ELITE SHADOW BETS “GAME OF DAY” FULL PREVIEW: DUKE AT NORTH CAROLINA (SAT. FEB. 8, 2020) – ESPN ~ 6PM/PST

 

BEST RIVALRY IN COLLEGE HOOPS RETURNS TO TOBACCO ROAD AS REELING TAR HEELS IN NEED OF HUGE UPSET!

 

VEGAS BETTING ODDS:  DUKE BLUE DEVILS (-8) @ NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS  ~  TOTAL: (150)

DUKE RECORD: (19-3) –  (9-2 ACC)           ****  NORTH CAROLINA RECORD: (10-12) – (3-8 ACC)

Well this aint your fathers or grand dads NC team as they are simply the worst Tar Heels team in a long, long time. They are sadly only 1/2 game out of dead last place in the ACC. Nothing has gone right this season for this young Tar Heels team. Only a miracle could have them playing in the Big Dance. Duke on other hand, also very young, is just 1/2 game out of first place in the ACC and now with just 3 losses all season. Last year these two split, with NC stampeding Duke at Cameroon Indoor and then it was Duke getting the bigger of the two games played last year with a one point ACC tourney win.

Duke comes in on 4 game win streak. They won by 8, 11, 12 and 30 points. They do come off a rare horrible shooting night as they scored only 63 at BC on Tuesday night, a game they hit just 1 three-ball in 15 tries. In their prior 20 games they never scored less than 72 points. Although they shot poorly vs. BC, they did still win thanks to a continuing solid trend of playing “lights out” pressure Defense. They held BC to just (2-18) from 3-land, and forced 17 turnovers. In this current 4 game win streak, they have been outstanding not allowing good looks from 3-land playing a really fantastic “Zone set up” and just never allowing a great deep shot look. In fact in this 4 game win streak, opponents are shooting just (16-74) from 3-land (21%). 

It’s been a tough year for the Tar Heels, but they got some good news 2 games ago as their #1 Freshman Cole Anthony returned from injury. They lost both games but he has played superb in limited minutes. NC biggest problem winning this game will be can they shoot better from 3-land (just 12-47) (25%) the past 3 games. Now they face possibly the best 3-ball D in the nation. NC has lost 7 of it’s last 9 games and lost it’s last Home game to BC by 1 point. They have been competitive though in many of these past losses, with losses by only 6, 1, 2, 14, 3 and 8 it’s last 6 losses (2 of those losses were in Overtime). 

Both teams came into this season fielding almost entirely young teams and it’s almost comical that Duke PG (only Soph) Tre Jones is one of the only starters with experience in this gigantic Rivalry. 

For Duke their top Frosh Center Vernon Carey, Jr. has really been a stud and improving with each game he plays. He now has 11 double-doubles this season and he’s averaging (17.8 points) (9 rebounds) per game leading the way. Jones is the glue guy and he is averaging 15 pts per game and 6’6″ Frosh Guard C. Stanley is really starting to look like a superstar in the making. Duke has 10 players averaging 12 mins or more per game so this is a very deep Duke club. They have 8 players shooting over 33% from 3-land. They do average 13 turnovers per game as at times the youth has showed it’s minimal experience together.

North Carolina has not had any luck with star Frosh Anthony playing only 5 games this season. The last 4 are all Tar Heels losses. This team is almost all Guards with no Center on roster and only 2 Forwards with significant minutes. They simply can’t shoot. They are barely at 40% shooting (FG %) and they turn it over 13x a game and once they fall behind, they can’t come back with a 29% three ball percentage on year. The one good thing is they have 9 players that average 16 mins on the floor per game. 

SHOCKING NOTE YOU WOULD NEVER HAVE EXPECTED TO SEE

The Tar Heels are not favored at Home for the first time since 2015. Now they are grabbing almost double digits here for this ESPN TV game at 6pm/EST.

FINAL SHOT

Many are saying this is a “MUST WIN” game for the Heels and I don’t have a clue why? This team will need a miracle to go to a low level Tourney game as even the NIT is starting to look impossible to pull off. For the Tar Heels to pull a Upset here, they need to shoot at least 50% and stop shooting 3’s. Go inside all game and try to get Carey into foul trouble. Duke loves to play fast and Coach K was livid at his teams lethargic play last game vs. Boston College. It’s a young team and not shocking to see them peek ahead to this big rivalry game. Don’t ever be fooled these kids choose Duke and NC for this rivalry alone. Duke last year had two elite super stars in Zion and Barrett. This year it’s more a “DEEP TEAM” and with how crazy this CBB season has been with nobody really super elite, this team could actually do better than last years team. The Tar Heels simply can’t play run and gun or they will get blown out. One Duke downfall is they are average FT shooting (69%) so if this becomes a foul fest, NC could actually gain from it with Duke missed FT’s. Last year NC went to Duke and bombed them. A few bigger minutes Duke kids are still in the rotation and won’t forget that beatdown. This game should be won by the much, much better team, Duke. This has been a “nightmare” season for the Tar Heels and HC Roy Williams. He simply does not have the horses to compete this time around. Duke wins by 12 here and gains a little revenge for bad loss at Cameron last year.

Enjoy the big Saturday card in CBB and even the new XFL Football League as well. May all your wagers be “WINNING” ones!

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