ESB “GAME OF DAY”- MARYLAND @ INDIANA PREVIEW (1-26)

 

ELITE SHADOW BETS “GAME OF THE DAY” COLLEGE HOOPS FULL PREVIEW (SUN. JAN. 26TH, 2020)

CAN MARYLAND GET IT’S 2ND STRAIGHT ROAD WIN IN BIG 10 AND SWEEP THE HOOSIERS?

 

VEGAS BETTING ODDS:  INDIANA (-1) vs. MARYLAND  ~   TOTAL: (133)

MARYLAND TERPS: (15-4) – (5-3 CONF.) – ROAD IN CONF. (1-4)  ~  INDIANA HOOSIERS: (15-4) – (5-3 CONF.) – SEASON HOME: (12-1)

The Big 10 season started off with any Road win at all super rare, but of late the Road teams are faring much better. These two teams are for the most part very evenly matched, although they did meet Jan. 4th and the Terps crushed the Hoosiers 75-59. At one point they held a lead of 30 points, so it was a beatdown of epic proportions. The difference in this Sunday rematch is the fact this game will be played at Assembly Hall, the one place Terps HC Mark Turgeon has yet to win. You can add the Terps only have one road win in Big 10 play, but that did come in their last game, at Northwestern, a game they trailed by 14 points at Halftime. After allowing an absurd 40 first half points and staring at a 0-5 Road record in Big 10 play, they came out and played a near perfect second half, winning the game by 11 points (a 25 point second half turnover). Indiana has been outstanding at Home this year, losing only once (12-1 thus far). They also come in off a really big win, over Michigan State on Thursday night, 67-63. 

Maryland is a team that can beat almost any elite team and the next night out they could lose to any elite team. They obviously are much better at Home. They aren’t a great shooting team (41% from FG range and just 31% from 3’s) so they rely heavily on playing great Defense to win games. In the first meeting vs. Indiana they held them to just (4-18) from 3’s and forced 14 turnovers for some very easy transition baskets. Again it will be up to a Defense that is really stymieing opposing Offenses, especially of late. They have held opponents to 66, 50, 56, 67, 55, 59, 70 (a big blowout win), and 52 points. 

Indiana has not made the Big Dance in 3 seasons so it’s games like this one that could either bolster their resume or really hurt their chances as they likely end near the bubble when the final picks are made. The Big 10 is as erratic as any Conference and with wins already over Michigan State, Florida State, Notre Dame and Ohio State, grabbing a split vs. Maryland after being destroyed in the first meeting is a big deal. Indiana is also a poor shooting team, hitting only 45% FG’s and less than 30% (29.9%) from 3-Land. That means they must hold opponents scoring down and their last 5 games they have done just that, allowing only 62 points per game average. They hold Maryland to 62 points Sunday and they likely win as the Home fans do seem to boost their Offensive woes. One positive note for Indiana in that earlier bad loss to the Terps is they did finish with 15 Offensive Rebounds. 

TALE OF TWO HALVES:

Maryland in their last game at Northwestern gave the worst Defensive effort I’d watched almost all season and they shot worse than how badly they played Defense (just 1-15). In the second half it first was the Defensive effort that got them to inch closer and closer, and then it was the hot shooting that got the game tied, and eventually a pull away double digit win. Not much chance they fall behind 14 at half at Assembly Hall though and coming back to win. 

INDIANA NEEDS BALANCED OFFENSE:

In this first meeting only 1 Hoosier player scored in double digits. They need more balanced but they simply do not have any Superstars who can throw up 25 point type games. In fact their high scorer is usually around the 15 point mark. 

HOOSIERS ARE JUST PLAIN “FOUL” AT THE FOUL LINE:

Indiana has a major problem on it’s hands as it’s a really bad 3-ball shooting team, but it’s just as bad really at the FT line. They are just 67% on year and their last 2 games they shot 11-19 and 12-20 at the Free Stripe Line. In a league where there will be lots of close games (nobody much better or much worse in Big 10 play this season) they simply can’t keep shooting themselves in the foot missing free throws. 

FINAL SHOT:

This is a really big game for both teams and with Maryland already with 4 Road losses and games ahead still AT: Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota and very surprising Rutgers, a 5th loss Sunday at Indiana will be a big black mark on their resume and kill the momentum from the big comeback road win at Northwestern earlier this week. Indiana normally has 4 players scoring in double digits and they will need likely 4 to do that to garner a win Sunday. Their big problem is they turn the ball over too much for a very Veteran team. They showed some savvy going into the paint early and often vs. a very physical and big Michigan State team on Thursday night, outscoring Sparty 34-18 in the Paint. I have no idea why either of these teams shoots a ton of 3’s when they aren’t good at it and both possess talent to score inside the paint at a much more profitable rate. It’s unlikely Indiana gets bombed a second straight time, as the Hoosiers are such a good Home team. They also remember losing a heart breaker to the Terps last season 78-75. Maryland and Indiana are both high (In Big 10) in the points allowed column, showing both have energetic Defenses. This game likely goes back and forth all the way being decided late in the second half. Adding another win over a ranked opponent will do wonders for this Indiana team desperately trying to get back to the Big Dance. Just really hard to ask this poor free throw shooting team to win a game vs. a team that dominated them in first meeting. Maryland’s poor Road record will keep most of the more elite and profitable Pro Handicappers off this one as well. But if you like an exciting and closely contested contest, this one will start your Sunday on a fun note. Heck I wouldn’t be shocked to see Overtime here.

Enjoy the “GAME OF THE DAY” for Sunday, January 26th in College Hoops and may all your wagers be “WINNING” ones!

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