ESB “GAME OF DAY”: WEST VA. @ BAYLOR PREVIEW (SAT. FEB 15, 2020)

ELITE SHADOW BETS “GAME OF DAY”:  WEST VIRGINIA @ BAYLOR PREVIEW (SAT. FEB 15TH, 2020)

 

WEST VIRGINIA LIMPS INTO WACO TO TRY AND KNOCK OFF #1 BAYLOR ON SATURDAY!

 

VEGAS ODDS: #1 BAYLOR BEARS  (-5 1/2) vs. #14 WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS ~  TOTAL: (130)

WEST VA (18-6) – (6-5 BIG 12)   ~  BAYLOR (22-1) – (11-0 BIG 12)

 

Well if you like lower scoring and hard nose Defensive battles, this game today in Waco easily should be at top of your list. West Virginia and Baylor are #2 and #4 in Defensive Efficiency, both have held 13 opponents under 60 points, and both are top 4 in Offensive Rebounding in the nation. There is no team in the nation that better personifies “TEAM” than this Baylor club. They have won 21 straight games without an elite Superstar player. Their only lost came in their second game and it was on a neutral court by 3 points to Washington, a team if they played again would likely be double digit favorites the second time around.

West Virginia comes into this one limping a bit as they simply cold not hit the broad side of a barn their past two games, both losses. They didn’t score a point in their final 5:07 on Wed night vs. Kansas. They shot 43-142 in the two losses, with 32 of the misses from in very close to the basket. The Offense hasn’t been great, but that is rock bottom level and they need to completely get out of that funk fast or Baylor will hold them under 60 again. They scored just 49 and 59 in those two bad losses.

West Va has really been bad in their last 3 Away games, losing by 10, 8 and 16 points. They are #177 in FG% efficiency, and they turn the ball over on 22% of their possessions. They are terrible at FT line shooting just 64.3%. So for this Mountaineers team it’s best path to win is playing lights out Defense. 

Baylor comes in off game they held Texas to their lowest point total in Austin since 1983 (allowed only 45 points). This team is simply amazing as they definitely don’t have the scoring punch so many other teams have. They have 10 wins when scoring under 69 points. They have wins scoring only 53, 59, 57, 52, 68, 67, 61, 68, 67 and 63 points.

BOTH TOTALLY STOPPED KANSAS OFFENSE

Both teams held Kansas to under 60 points.

BOTH GREAT FORCING TURNOVERS AND IN 2 POINT FG DEFENSE

Both amazingly force 22 turnovers a game and both are Top 15 in 2 point FG % Defense. W Va “PRESS VIRGINIA” isn’t to me as good as years past but they do still try to get easy baskets off turnovers they force.

BAYLOR WINS WITH NOT GREAT SHOOTING

Baylor has shot under 35% four times and only shot over 50% three times. 

 FINAL SHOT

I don’t want to say Baylor wins with mirrors, but it’s really been amazing how they can shoot poorly and still never lose. West Virginia is the exact opposite as every game they shoot poorly they lose. Neither runs great Offensive sets but they rebound their own misses and get some scoring off that. It’s hard to even look at the Mounties here as they have shot so poorly the past two games. I bet against them both games and was stunned how many “bunnies” (shots from 4 feet in) they missed. In fact it was two of the worst shooting games by any team I’ve seen in a few years. It’s hard to win knowing you likely won’t score a bunch. This is the ultimate game of two teams priding their true identity playing ferocious Defense for 40 minutes. I’d normally look to side with the team that lost both meetings last year, in this case it’s W Virginia. But the main rule to being a winning bettor long term is don’t get in front of a train moving ahead as fast as lightning. Baylor is well coached and just keeps making big plays when they need them. This total is a tad high considering the Defensive stalwarts on both sides. West Virginia could really, really need this WIN. Losing 3 straight coming down the stretch run with some tough games still ahead could derail a #4 seed and turn in into a #7-8 seed. I’d expect them to come out pumped up to avenge their two past games the past week and also to avenge two losses last year to Baylor. I’d call for this game to stay close, and in end decided by a few baskets. 

Enjoy this game between two Top 14 teams and may all your Wagers be WINNING ones!

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