NFL WEEK 6 SOLID BETTING TRENDS & NUGGETS!

KIRK “STILL NEVER WON A BIG GAME” COUSINS AND LOTS MORE BETTING STUFF FOR NFL~WEEK 6!

Whenever I talk NFL, I love to make sure I make it know (again and again…lol) that the Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has never won a Big game. OK, so may say he has and I guess you could call his 5 wins in 31 tries vs. teams that ended the season with a .500 or better record as actually winning a Big game. Trust me his next big win will be his first ever. This guy has Madoff beaten by a landslide with how he has stolen over 100 million from Moron Owners. 

Let’s look at ole Kirk’s season so far. Before last week, HC Mike Zimmer clearly knows his QB isn’t that good and so he has tried to go RUN all he can. Less chances for ole Kirk to lose the game, like he did vs. the Bears, who also happen to be the only Top half of all Defenses he’s faced. He’s faced 4 bottom half Defenses these first 5 weeks and 3 are bottom 10. He is the 4th lowest Yards Passing per game, and 1/3 of that number is garbage time yards as he’s racked up a few hundred when the team was down big late. Last week he faced the 3rd worst D in the league (NYG) and many act like he killed it and all of a sudden the Vikings problems (really him as the problem) is all fixed. Do NOT be fooled as they aren’t fixed and never will be. He is a deer in the headlights against pressure and so now the Vikings (finally) learned he has to do lots of roll outs/play action passes to be able to move the ball. He has two of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and most of his yards passing comes after the time they catch the ball. He also has possibly the best RB (D. Cook) in the NFL, and yet he still struggles. I’ve watched this guy for years now and he’s good vs. bad teams and bad Defenses, but you NEVER want to bet this loser in any Big game. This week he plays the Eagles, who would be considered a “BIG WIN” if the Vikings win on Sunday. Philly’s Defense is number 1 stopping the Run (63 yrpg allowed). They suck though vs. Pass (5th worst), so this game will show if this Offense has fixed it’s problems or not. Cook is a beast and the Vikings avg. (166 yrpg) but if the Eagles wrecking crew up front stifle Cook and the other backs, this game will be all on Cousins to win it. I’ve watched these Vikings tapes over and over. You can book it they will be throwing screens to Cook early and often as he’s a handful once he’s out in open space. Cousins can actually look good if the Eagles continue to struggle in the Secondary. But now the Vikings are even favored by a FG and maybe more by kickoff as they are betting Ole Never Won Kirk like he’s Joe Montana. The Vikings have everything in their favor in this game, except the fact their QB is a bottom feeder who can’t handle the pressure. I expect Cousins to put up some yards here as the Birds secondary is injury riddled, can’t tackle and can’t cover. I’d still never ask a guy who has never won any Big games this long into his career to win for me. 

LET’S LOOK AT SOME BETTING TRENDS AND ANGLES AND NUGGETS FOR WEEK 6 ~ NFL:

1). CLEVELAND BROWNS – Off a loss this season have rebounded with Wins by 15 and 20 points.

2). NFL ROAD FAVORITES THIS SEASON:  (61%) winning rate.

3). BALTY RAVENS DEFENSE: Has now allowed 96 points the past 3 weeks.

4). TEAMS OFF THURS GAME vs. TEAMS OFF MON NITE GAME: (10-3) ATS. It’s clear extra rest/time to prepare has been huge for bettors on this angle.

5). CINCI DEFENSE/RAVENS DEFENSE: Both bottom feeders in YPP and Pass Yards Per Play. 

6). JAX JAGS QB G. MINSHEW: 9 TD’S and only 1 Interception this season.

7). MIAMI DOLPHINS: Outscored by 137 points in just 4 games. OUCH!

8). L.A. RAMS HEAD COACH SEAN McVAY: With more time to Prepare is (8-0) straight up and (7-1) ATS. 

9). PITT STEELERS  with No Big Ben at QB: Losses by 2, 3 and 4 points. 

10). L.A. CHARGERS/QB P. RIVERS: Offensive Line in shambles and Rivers just (2-8-1) ATS last 11x as Home Favorite.

11). CAROLINA QB KYLE ALLEN: (4-0) straight up and (4-0) ATS as the starting QB for the Panthers.

12). HOUSTON QB WATSON: (8-1) ATS as Road Dog with 4 outright wins.

13). K C CHIEFS: May be without 2 starting OL, and off lowest scoring output by QB Mahomes (13 points) last week.

14). PHILLY EAGLES QB WENTZ: Last 4 starts all have seen him pass for Under (60%) pass completion rate. 

15). MINNY VIKINGS HEAD COACH MIKE ZIMMER: Simply a ticket cashing machine at Home going (31-12-2) ATS, Incl. (2-0) ATS this season.

16). NEW ORLEANS SAINTS DEFENSE: Has not allowed a RB to rush for 100 yards in last 31 games, now face Jags RB Fournette (333 rush yards past 2 weeks).

17). NEW ORLEANS SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA:  Has been held to 70 Yards Rushing in 4 straight games, yet 3 were wins. 

18). SEATTLE QB RUSSELL WILSON: 14 TD Passes and not 1 Interception yet. Now faces banged up Browns Secondary this Sunday.

19). BALTY RAVENS: Average 36 Rush attempts per game: facing Bengals Defense allowing (167) rush yards per game.

20). BALTY RAVENS: (32-0) straight up laying double digits, but only (3-10) ATS since 2010 in that situation.

21). SAINTS QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER: sensational (26-7) as the starting QB and (14-2) ATS as an Underdog, winning 7 of those games straight up too.

22). L.A. RAMS WR COOPER KUPP: Fantasy stud having 3 straight games with at least 9 catches and a TD too.

23). TENNESSEE TITANS:  The Underdog in all five of their games this year has Covered the ATS (spread).

24). COWBOYS QB DAK PRESCOTT: (10-0) straight up, (7-2-1) ATS when favored by 6 or more points.   (13-5-2) ATS vs. Losing teams.

25). ATLANTA FALCONS: (2-9) ATS Last 11 on the Road and (3-12) ATS in Non Division games.

26). UNBEATEN (4-0) NFL TEAMS: (16-8-1) ATS and (5-0) ATS since 2015.

27). DALLAS #1 OFFENSE will face the dead last Jets Defense this week.

28). DALLAS DEFENSE on 3rd Downs (26%) vs. NY JETS OFFENSE ranked 3rd worst (21%).

29). NFL QB’S MAKING 1ST CAREER STARTS this Season: (7-0) ATS.  Steelers QB Hodges will be in this category on Sunday.

30). DETROIT LIONS: Have beaten the GB Packers all 4x they met the past 2 years winning 31-23, 31-0, 30-17, 35-11. (combined scores 127-51).

31). GREEN BAY PACKERS QB A. RODGERS: Facing the Lions 3rd worst Pass Defense (allowing 280 yards per game) this year.

 

TOILET BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR: REDSKINS @ DOLPHINS

Both teams are Win less, so Sunday one of these teams will finally get the elusive Win 1. Coming into this game you will rarely ever see these following numbers for one game:

WASH #29 OFFENSE, #28 DEFENSE       ~     MIAMI #31 OFFENSE, #32 DEFENSE

The good news for the Redskins (my fav team) is QB Case Keenum injured foot is better and he will start this game. Hard to believe a team (0-5) that had to fire it’s Head Coach is favored by 3 1/2 points in this contest, which shows you how brutally bad the Dolphins team really is. The Dolphins Home games have around 500 fans, it’s truly most pathetic scene I’ve seen in years covering the NFL. The good news for the losing team is they move into the #1 Draft pick next year solidly as they would win any tiebreaker vs. the other team if they end with same amount of wins. I personally would rather see the Redskins lose, but they really aren’t as bad as the (0-5) record. Numerous key OL injuries and LT Trent Williams hold out have caused them to be win less, but they likely will end up with 3 wins whereas the Dolphins may not have any winnable games the rest of the season, as they from Day 1 had only one thing on their minds: GET THE #1 OVERALL PICK.

Have a nice weekend ahead and enjoy some really good games and may all your wagers be WINNING ones!

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