PATRIOTS @ NY JETS: MON NIGHT PREVIEW (10-21)

CAN THE JETS PULL OFF THE “UPSET” OF THE YEAR ON MONDAY NIGHT PRIME TIME?

VEGAS BETTING LINE:  NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-10) —- @ NY JETS  ~  TOTAL: (43)

The Jets are back. Like the Redskins they are now going to the Super Bowl. QB Darnold is the best QB in 100 years. They say “bring on the Champs, they aint got nothing!” Well of course both those last 3 lines are NOT true. But boy o’ boy are the Jets fans happy to see Darnold return. The kid is a nice QB who clearly shows he will be one to watch in years ahead. He will face his toughest test I think as a Pro, facing this Patriots Defense that is playing at a nearly impossible level. It’s like the Pats have 12 men on the field. The Pats Defense has allowed 3, 0, 0, 10, 17 and 14 points so far. They are reaching “best all time” levels on 3rd downs: (10-73) (13.7%) allowed and in the earlier win vs. Jets they allowed not one third down conversion. I will note it was Luke Falk’s first game as Jets QB and not with Darnold under Center. The Jets hoped RB L. Bell would provide big numbers and give needed jolt to the Jets Offense, but so far (3.0) yards per carry only as opposing Defense’s have load the box and he’s had no shot to do much. Ok so for many you want to ask: “do the Jets have a chance to win here”? Let’s look at one thing Pats QB Brady is struggling at so far. He is really struggling “UNDER PRESSURE” for the first time I’ve ever watched. He’s completing (24%) when pressured and only (2.5 yards per attempted pass) when under fire (also 2 Int’s). I watched their last few game tapes closer and reason is OL has been just so-so and his receivers simply aren’t separating much. Lucky for Brady he still has WR Edelman, who seems to get open on every pass. Look the Pats are (6-0) and winning any NFL game is not easy. The Pats though have faced almost the entire bottom feeder Offenses so far, so the D hasn’t been overly tested. They faced Jets (#31), Redskins (#30), Miami (dead last), Bills (#25), NY Giants (#24) and Steelers (#20). But you have to give credit when it’s due, they haven’t let down knowing they were playing some weak Offensive Units.

The key here may come down to the Jets D that loves to blitz (38%) of time (4th most). I love that thinking when you have a bad team, you gotta make things happen. In years past you blitz Brady you get killed for it. This year not so much. Is Brady finally showing some cracks in the armor? Since the Pats have been ahead by big numbers a lot, Brady hasn’t been tested much. I did notice how the Skins D just got in there all day using blitz packages. Brady now is very smart, and he quickly goes down like ole Peyton Manning used to, if anyone is close. I love that too as we see too many QB take unnecessary big hits. Brady goes down, so does Pats season. The Jets have held their own at Home past 6 season against the Pats (5-1) ATS. Their D gets a huge lift too as LB CJ Mosely returns from long absence. This Jets D has some fantastic players, including to me one of the best in the NFL, Safety Jamal Adams. He leads the Defense is slowing down the Run and the Pats are under 100 yards rushing per game so far. I doubt I am in action here, but I can only look at one thing thats a “sure thing” so far and that is the Pats D (#1) and so far nobody has really had two straight good drives against them. They are in the zone that we rarely see in this league. They are well coached, no egos and rarely out of position. Pats are only (4-2) ATS so far, but one of the two losses actually came against the Jets when the Jets got two garbage TD’s late (fumble and INT return off backup QB Stidham), otherwise they would be covering at a (5-1) ATS clip. You bet against the Pats and you are dead broke and Homeless.

When into a Week 7 game, stats do mean a ton when making your handicap on any game. But you have to throw out the Offense Stats so far for the Jets as most came without stud QB Darnold. Also in the first meeting the Jets did do super job stopping Pats #1 rusher, Sony Michel, holding him to 11 yards on 9 carries. They played that game without their first round beast DT, Quinnen Williams. He will be on the field tonight which will help a pretty decent Jets Defense, who are led by who I think is possibly the best Defensive Player in the NFL, Jamal Adams. The Jets D is (#5) vs. Run, allowing only (3.6) yards per carry and that is with Q. Williams out a lot of games. The Jets Problem tonight will be stopping Brady and the passing attack….as the Jets are the (12th) worst allowing most completions. Brady will dink and dunk you to death so the Jets need to figure a way to turn the Pats over a few times.

Tom Brady is (16-7) on Monday Night games in his career, and (28-6) vs. the NY Jets. Pats HC Bill Belichick is (9-7) on the Road on Monday Night Football games.

INJURY/SUSPENSIONS:  Pats DE Michael Bennett is suspended tonight. Pats WR Gordon is OUT. TE Lacosse and TE Izzo both OUT.  The Jets will be without LB Mclellan and OL Beachum (likely to miss). Great news is looks like stud LB CJ Mosely will return and that is one big lift for sure to the Gang Green side.

FINAL OUTLOOK: Jets come in with lots of happy thoughts after dismal (0-4) start after beating Dallas 24-22 to get that big #1 win of season. Darnold did not look rusty at all in that win going (23-32-338-2 TD’S- 1 Interception). They need to get RB L. Bell on track as he’s only gaining (3.0) ypc. Opposing Defenses have loaded the box against Jets without Darnold. They can’t do that now with him behind Center. Patriots are just (1-5) ATS at NY Jets last 6 trips there. It’s funny though line was (-9 1/2) yesterday and now back a solid (-10) all over. Most folks bet Tom Brady and Dr. Bill B when hand forced in a one game only on card deal. The Jets Offense isn’t really the worst in NFL like stats show as they were the worst Offense I’ve ever seen with Darnold out. I mean EVER. Darnold is a play maker and Bell has had almost no chance to shine. But they still will face a huge test vs. Patriots Defense that although they’ve played mostly bottom feeder Offenses, they are never out of place, and in my film watch, grade out as Best Tackling team in NFL so far. Jets must avoid Turnovers. The Pats Kicker is simply not too good, so I’d expect Bill B to bypass a try or two if it’s 4th and less than 3 yards. It’s first time all season Jets fans can really cheer and believe team actually might win. They played a near perfect game last time out vs. Dallas and need to duplicate that tonight but without any turnovers at all.

Have a great new week ahead and cash all your bets too.

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