SOME CFB DECEIVING NUMBERS/STATS/TIRED DEFENSES AND MORE!

SOME IMPORTANT COLLEGE FOOTBALL NOTES TO HELP HANDICAPPING THIS WEEK’S CARD A BIT BETTER!

Each week most people don’t get to watch all the 60 games or so and so you only see the final score. If you see Team A beat Team B by a good 2 TD’s or more, you likely assume that the game was one sided in favor of the Winning team. This is not always the case, and usually the culprit is Turnovers as the costly reason the losing team lost. I use many methods when making a final selection on a game on who I will make a wager on. Many people ask me “what’s the best first rule to handicap a game”? Again there are many, but one of the first things I look at is how many Plays was a teams “DEFENSE” on the field. If it’s in the 80’s, or God forbid the 90’s or even the almost hard to even believe 100’s, to me that team is almost already red flagged for a “SIDE” backing, but it’s a early Check mark to the good side for the “TOTAL”. Of course again not automatic due to one game, but it’s a red flag to start looking deeper into the game prior, and then to prior to see is this teams Defense coming into this weeks game with “TIRED LEGS”. You also want to see how many games straight has a team played? This week C. Michigan will be playing for a 10th straight week. I don’t care who they play this week, to me that is too big a task to ask these kids to play so many games without a “break” week, and I red mark them right off my card.

Here is a list of Defenses on the field last week at least 80 plays:

(*in order most plays on field on down):

1). MEMPHIS:  101 PLAYS ON DEFENSE

2). OKLAHOMA STATE: 88 PLAYS ON DEFENSE

3). MIAMI-OHIO:  84 PLAYS ON DEFENSE

4). UTAH STATE: 84 PLAYS ON DEFENSE

5). SAN JOSE STATE:  83 PLAYS ON DEFENSE

6). FRESNO STATE: 81 PLAYS ON DEFENSE

7). TENNESSE/TEXAS STATE/BOWLING GREEN: ALL 81 PLAYS ON DEFENSE

10). C.MICHIGAN/NORTH CAROLINA: BOTH 80 PLAYS ON DEFENSE

 

THESE TEAMS OUTPLAYED THEIR OPPONENT BUT “LOST THE GAME”:

1). HOUSTON out gained SMU (510-385) Total yards, but lost 34-31.

2). ARMY ran (83) plays to San Jose States (49) plays. but lost 34-29.

3). TULSA ran (101) plays to Memphis (59) plays, but lost 42-41.

4). IOWA STATE had a (30-14) First Down advantage, (468-402) Total Yards advantage, and ran (88) plays to Okla State (55), but lost 34-27.

 

THESE TEAMS OFFENSE LAST WEEK WAS REALLY HORRIFIC:

1). CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS:  83 Total yards and 23 yards on 21 rushing attempts. It’s also first time Def allowed over 25 points all season.

2). OLD DOMINION:  This Offense is truly pathetic and once again 204 Total Yards. Never bet this team.

3). MIAMI HURRICANES: The Canes “O” managed just 208 Total Yards. Thx to 3 Pitt turnovers, this brutal Offensive effort still earned a “WIN”.

4). NORTHWESTERN: I noted on this site after 2 games this Offense was going to be bad. It gets worse by the week though. Last week 202 Total yards. EEEK!

5). MARYLAND: 202 Total yards….how? why? loaded with crazy speed. HC Locksley worst HC in CFB. Never won before and got this job. He won’t have it much longer.

 

STATE OF KANSAS HIT TWO HOME RUNS WITH NEW HEAD COACHING HIRES!

It was not an easy job to replace the ole ole ole Ball Coach at Kansas State in Bill Snyder. But new hire for the Wildcats Chris Klieman is a complete grand slam home run. Am I shocked Oklahoma lost? Yes. To Kansas State and this awesome HC? No. Future very bright for Purple Guys in Kansas after he recruits all his type of kids.

Next we go to the worst program over the past 5 years, Kansas, and yes I mean in Football. If it’s not bad enough, the school and kids there are spoiled with a ELITE College Hoops team, well forever, and the program had sunk to as low level as possible. Who even wanted this job in Lawrence? Well lucky for them, the Mad Hatter, Les Miles did. I thought o.k. it’s gonna take a few years, but he can maybe steal a stud QB in transfer portal, and at least start being competitive in 2 years, maybe winning 4 games in year 2. He though goes right out there, and has 3 wins already. He’s forced to ax his OC after 6 games. You hate to see that so early in a first year, but he did what was needed. He then hires maybe the Home Run of all hires (new OC Brent Dearmon) and the Offense is now one to be feared not just rest of this season, but next year I’d expect the recruiting to be best at Kansas, EVER. Hats of to the Mad Hatter, Kansas Football is back from the dredges.

 

“WHO’S ON FIRST, WHAT’S ON SECOND” is the new ACC Conference as the whole league (not named Clemson) is the same team, AVERAGE JOE UNIVERSITY!

From one week to the next, in the ACC this year, you have no clue what team shows up. One week half the teams look good and the next week that same half stink up the joint. Unless I am looking to bet Clemson, I am quickly out of adding any other team in this league as a “BET ON” for the upcoming week. 

 

STOCK WAY UP:

1). HOUSTON COUGARS HC DANA HOLGERSEN:  You might say “STOCK WAY UP” to a guy who has his team just (3-5)? Yup, that’s my take. This guy lost his top QB and a few other giant chips, but man the future is so bright with him at the helm. He had a really good SMU on the ropes, and he may have a losing record at the end of this season, but he won’t have one next season. Book that!

2). NORTH CAROLINA HC MACK BROWN: OK another guy with an average record (4-4). After I heard he got the job, I said “oh noooooo”, not this old fud again. I couldn’t believe he even got hired and said this is one nightmare waiting to happen. But the exact opposite has happened. He has renewed energy, the kids love him, they play harder than 100 other teams, and he’s playing with a Freshmen QB this season and he’s tied for first place in the Atlantic Division. Are you kidding me or what? He’s like Ed Orgeron of LSU, he can go into a kids home, and instantly the Parents love him and by next year, he will haul in some big recruits, and have a then seasoned QB in year 2. Watch out folks, the Tar Heels on back on the Map again. GO NURSING HOME MACK!

3). KANSAS NEW O.C. BRENT DEARMON: I mentioned him above with Les Miles spotlight, but this young kid is a Offensive whiz, and he’s led the Offense to 85 points in just 2 games. He’s a hidden gem and Miles will just let him go and do his thing and together they will bring Kansas back into the picture in a good light, wait great light, you wait and see.

 

STOCK DOWN…AND I MEAN WAYYYYYY DOWN:

1). ARMY (3-5) – After reaching it’s best season ever last year, this team has completely underachieved and right now may be out of gas as emotionally this team is now at rock bottom. The Opener at first seemed like a “just off game”. Now though it’s been a season full of “Off games”. Last week they ran 34 more plays than San Jose State and they lost. Usually if either Army, Navy or Air Force could get that type of margin in Total Plays, they win as you are usually worn out on Defense. But this Army team just is out of sync, and has been every step of the way this 2019 season. I have only watched them twice, but they look slow, they look not energized and they are going to get their ass kicked in by Navy in early December. Sometimes you have kids hit a peak they never even thought they could reach, and there is only one place to go the next year, and it’s down. This Cadets team lost 4 straight, and to Tulane by 9, W. Kentucky by 9, Ga. State by 7 and San Jose State by 5. The Offense is ranked #111 overall, with only 264 rush yards per game and no help at all with only 75 passing yards per game. I have to say to me this is one of the 3 most “DISAPPOINTING TEAMS” in all of College Football this season. They face Air Force this week in a huge Revenge game for the Flyboys (lost 17-14 last year) and in need of 3 wins in final 5 weeks to get a “BOWL BID”. They do have 2 sure wins likely with UMass and VMI, but a loss to Air Force will mean they must beat those two bottom feeders and then close out season with Wins @ Hawaii (no easy task) and then close out beating Navy (and that aint happening this year). If they miss a “BOWL GAME” they will have hit the highest of peaks and the lowest of lows in just two seasons. I did NOT see this team struggling to this level this season. It’s a shame, as I root for all the Academies and so far this year, Navy is loading my pockets, Army is not loading any bettor’s pocket to this point.

 

STILL FLYING UNDER THE RADAR: THE MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

When this program hired PJ Fleck a few years ago, I thought this program is on the rise IMMEDIATELY. This guy oozes confidence, and the kids can smell it and feed off it bigly. He’s got his team (8-0) and ready to crash the party in another month, shocking most of the world, but not me. This guy can Coach and he can inspire kids, something many HC’s just don’t seem to be able to do anymore in this new world of tech that these kids live in. This guy could likely suit up and kick some ass still too, as he runs up and down the sidelines faster than over half his players. This will be his last season at Minnesota, which is kinda sad, but next season he will be on the sidelines of one of the biggest name programs in College Football, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s even named a new NFL Head Coach. Minnesota has totally dominated the past 4 games (average margin 42-10). I am sooooo rooting this team to crash the party next month.

 

THEY ALL SAY IT’S THE TUA SWEEPSTAKES FOR THE #1 NFL DRAFT PICK, I SAY HE’S NOT #1!

Ok being a Redskins fan, I hold out hope we grab the #1 pick. We aren’t in the market for a QB, so that means we can take the best player, not named Tua Tagovailoa, and his name is Chase Young. If you don’t know who he is, think Nick Bosa (SF Niners), just younger. Young may well be the best Pass Rusher to come out of College, like in EVER! It’s always tough for a needy QB team to not draft the best QB on the board, but whether or not I need a QB badly or not, if I am the GM with the #1 pick, I am taking Chase Young. He will be a monster for a decade and completely change a NFL team’s Defense, INSTANTLY. Right now we have a bunch of second best CFB teams, but if you are smart, go bet Ohio State right now to win the National Championship. They are loaded and I don’t see any Offense doing much against Chase Young and the Buckeyes Defense. Yes Bama is Bama and Clemson is Clemson, but I don’t think either one can beat this Buckeyes team this year. 

 

Hope this helps you a little bit with all your new Weekend’s College Football Handicapping. Have a fun Halloween week ahead.

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